We are issuing a new advisory at this time due to continuing solar activity conditions that are being observed. A series of large flares have been observed over the past 40 hours, at the present time of 23UT April 2, 2001, a X-Class flare exceeding X10 size is in progress. This size saturates the detection capability of the satellite sensor and is unable to be properly quantified. It is unknown at this time which region is responsible for the event, though it is likely from the large active region 9393. If so, the likelihood is that the flare is not well-connected at this time to produce large geo-magnetic storms due to its position on the west limb of the Sun. If this current flare is from region 9393, high radiation from energetic protons are quite likely, which has implications for satellite operations, human radiation exposures at high altitudes, etc. However, the large quantity of energetic flares that have been observed over the past two days are likely to send sufficient particles to earth to cause long-duration storms starting in the next day or later.

We will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory.

Best Regards,
John Kappenman,
Metatech
218-727-2666